According to Enders Analysis, there’s good news for broadcasters in the ongoing battle for viewers against the streamers.
The analysts suggest the decline in broadcast viewing is slowing, while the growth of SVoD viewing will begin to plateau next year as video-sharing platforms (e.g. YouTube and TikTok) take an increasing share of engagement. The company predicts that by 2030 broadcasters’ share of total video viewing will be 52 per cent, down from 58 per cent in 2023, and 95 per cent in 2010.
One of the reasons for the slowdown is the UK’s ageing population, says Enders. In 2024, viewers over the age of 65 are expected to watch just under five and a half hours of broadcaster content on average each day.
By 2030 the analysts project that on average viewers aged over 65 will still watch over five hours each day but, because the UK’s older population is continuing to increase, there will be 2.3 million more over-75s in 2040 than now.
Looking further ahead, Enders predicts that despite the ageing population who traditionally choose to watch TV via DTT, half of all broadcaster viewing will be via the internet by 2024.
“Our IP viewing projections consider the breakdown of live versus non-live viewing on each broadcast platform (with the vast majority of live viewing remaining broadcast in DTT and satellite homes), as well as each platform’s demographic breakdown,” said the analysts.
“We assume the rate of transition to IP would be much slower in DTT-only homes, and that many older DTT and Freesat households may never choose to subscribe to broadband.”
